kft

Equity markets ended the third quarter with their biggest losses in four months, and we're now staring down the closing months of 2009. Half the quarter, of course, is dominated by holiday sales, which ups the stakes at the finish line and sets the tone for the bulk of 2010.

Even though company performances have been fairly strong through this reporting season, it's tough to shake the nerves associated with depressed consumer spending and high unemployment.

Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) is expected to report Q3 EPS on November 3. KFT's $16.7 billion bid for Cadbury PLC (NYSE: CBY) was rejected by CBY in September. KFT faces a November 9 deadline set by the U.K. Takeover Panel to make a formal offer for CBY. KFT November option implied volatility is at 25, December is at 24; versus its 26-week average of 25, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

iShares Trust FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (NYSE: FXI) is recently up $1.30 to $43 in pre-open trading. FXI is an index fund that seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. FXI overall option implied volatility of 38 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Halloween, though not the blockbuster holiday that Christmas is, still results in some additional spending on the part of consumers as they stock up on candy and costumes, and maybe take in a scary movie or two. With those treats in mind here are some stocks that may give investors sweet dreams -- and hopefully not nightmares.

As is well known, candy is all the rage at Halloween, and among the largest candy stocks are Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) and Cadbury PLC (NYSE: CBY). Last week, Hershey reported third-quarter earnings rose 30% despite weaker volumes affected by higher prices for its sweets. Last year's numbers also included special charges. Still the company said it expects full-year earnings to be ahead of Wall Street forecasts. In 2010, the Pennsylvania company said it expects earnings excluding items to rise 6% to 8%. The stock has a forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio of 16 and a current dividend yield of 3.1%.

Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) didn't need a hearty breakfast to get its stock going today (although I'm sure it had one anyway). All it needed was a reasonably healthy earnings report. Judging by how the stock is performing, I think the company got one.

For the third quarter, Kellogg saw flat sales growth. However, take out currency effects and acquisitions, and you've got a 3% expansion rate on the top line. Well, that isn't so robust, either, but let's head to the bottom line. Earnings per share came in at 94 cents, representative of a 6% increase. Not so bad, and according to Mark Fightmaster's preview, that was a dime better than what analysts wanted to see.

Hershey (NYSE: HSY) had a more than acceptable third quarter in terms of bottom-line growth, but it looks like the market couldn't care less. As I write this, shares of the candy company are trading down 4.4% in the afternoon session, on extremely sweet volume (and by sweet, I mean bad).

On an adjusted basis, Hershey increased per-share profit by 14% to 73 cents. According to Earnings.com, analysts were only expecting 67 cents per share. Hey, what's going on? The Dow and the S&P 500 are in the green, and the NASDAQ is only down slightly. Shouldn't investors be happy with results like these?

Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) is turning into a "frugal consumer" play, which is why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on July 13, 2009, at a price of $26.88.

Kraft will benefit from the now-established "frugal consumer" trend, whereby Americans save more and eliminate needless, optional purchases. Included in the above will be more meals consumed at home per month, which is good news for food company Kraft.

ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) issued Q1 numbers on Tuesday. The market wasn't too impressed by them, but they weren't bad, actually. Net sales were lackluster, I'll admit. They dropped about 3%. Earnings per share from continuing operations, on the other hand, really shined. They increased well over 60% to 38 cents. Net income from continuing operations on a dollar basis soared over 50%.

Even better, that 38-cents-per-share statistic was firmly ahead of Wall Street expectations. According to our earnings preview, analysts were looking for 34 cents per share.

Cadbury PLC (NYSE: CBY) rejected Kraft (NYSE: KFT) $16.7B for CBY on September 7. CBY over all option implied volatility of 27 is below its 26-week average of 33, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM) is recently closed at $39.28. EEM October option implied volatility is at 31, November is at 33; below its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

"The Dogs of the Dow strategy has a long-term history of outperforming the Dow Jones average," notes technical expert Gerald Appel.

In his Systems & Forecasts, he explains, "The theory is that the highest yielding stocks are undervalued and should have the greatest change of appreciating." Here, he reviews the five highest yielders.

"In calculating a formal track record for the strategy, dividend yields are ranked on the last trading day of each year. However, there is no reason why you are limited to ranking stocks only at the end of the year.

"The current market climate appears favorable for using this strategy to garner investment income, since market risk appears below normal and investment income is getting hard to come by.

The bulls just keep running. So much so that even the bears have started wearing horns and fake hooves so that they fit in a little better. A tame CPI figure on consumer inflation helped things steady and then a less-bad homebuilder survey allowed the run to continue higher. Oil prices ramped up on lower crude inventories as well. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,790.35 +106.94 (1.10%)
S&P 500 1,068.76 +16.13 (1.53%)
Nasdaq 2,133.15 +30.51 (1.45%)

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Earlier today, the Street was abuzz with rumors that Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) was investigating the sale of brands such as Maxwell House and Oscar Mayer in order to raise capital to up its Cadbury (NYSE: CBY) bid to something a little bit sweeter (and one the confectionery giant might not reject).

Kraft responded to the rumors saying they were just that - unfounded conjecture - and noted that it would not in fact need to ditch hot dogs and coffee for creme eggs and Trident gum. A spokeswoman for the company told Reuters "The financing for this proposal does not require any divestitures." So where did these rumors get started, anyway? Is Kraft protesting too much?

Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), a familiar name at the supermarket, reported Q4 earnings on Friday. The top line wasn't so hot as sales declined 11%. There were a few factors to consider with that decline, including currency translation and the issue of there being an extra week in the previous year's comparable quarter. I'm pretty satisfied with the context management provided for the challenged revenue. Also, sales essentially matched expectations, according to our earnings preview, which isn't so bad. The bottom line, however, deserves more than a passing grade. Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations increased 15% to 30 cents, beating estimates by four pennies.

I like it. Furthermore, I enjoyed that adjusted per-share profit for the full fiscal year also beat forecasts. And you should take a look at the adjusted gross margin for both the quarter and the 12-month period. Campbell's management was able to expand the metric, a feat indicative of efficiencies and pricing strategies, according to the press release.

Hershey (NYSE: HSY) closed at $40.49 Wednesday. Cadbury PLC (NYSE: CBY), the world's second largest confectioner, rejected Kraft (NYSE: KFT) $16.7 billion for CBY on September 7, which has led analysts to speculate about additional merger possibilities.

HSY September and October option implied volatility is at 27 is near its 26-week average of 29. HSY options were active on September 9th with volume of 52,364 contracts according to Track Data.

ISE Sentiment Index - ISEE closed at 127 on 9/9/09. ISEE 10-day moving average is 114.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Today was a strange post-holiday session as US markets really just keyed off of a weak dollar and higher commodity prices. $70+ on oil and $1,000+ gold were a highlight, but all in all this was merely the U.S. playing catch-up on gains after we had an extra day off.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell figures:

Dow 9,497.34 +56.07 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,025.37 +8.97 (0.88%)
Nasdaq 2,037.77 +18.99 (0.94%)

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says takeover deals and major stock upgrades are going to be hard to fight.

Worldwide funded freight train coming at you. Hard to fight. Hard to stand in front of. That's what I think is happening here. It is clear that Ron Insana, in his fabulous Market Movers commentary this morning and with his quick moves to catch some of the move, totally agrees with me. It doesn't take much to see that Doug Kass is going full bore against me.

I feel like Michael Corleone in the lamented Godfather III. Every time I want to get out, they pull me back in again, and this time the pull is from the macro, where the central bankers keep plowing the money in, and from the micro, where one of the biggest deals in ages -- the Kraft (NYSE: KFT) (Cramer's Take) hostile on Cadbury -- reminds us that stocks aren't expensive, they are cheap.